Want more tips on innovation? Check these stories out:
There was a great study done on behalf of the U.S. Army to look at the impact of confirmation bias.
Researchers Martin A. Tolcott and F. Freeman Marvin gave trained U.S. Army intelligence analysts a battlefield scenario and asked them to determine the enemy's most likely avenue of approach and their level of confidence. Later, analysts were given three updated intelligence reports, each which contained some items that supported their hypotheses and others that disproved them.
They were then asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypothesis. Although there was significant evidence that disproved their initial beliefs, the new information somehow increased their confidence levels. The researchers found that “confirming evidence was weighed significantly higher than disconfirming evidence.”
Sadly, innovations fail so often because we unknowingly ignore or invalidate evidence that does not support out beliefs.
Scoot Cook, founder of Intuit, brilliantly said, “For every one of our failures, we had spreadsheets that looked awesome.”
When fleshing out a new idea through data analysis or experimentation, be sure to gather as much information as you can that refutes your hypotheses. Pull together the business case for why you should NOT pursue the concept.
Then, make sure you give equal weight to the disproving evidence. Because this is not always easy to do, you may want to use an unbiased third party who does not have a vested interest in the idea, yet has a deep understanding of the marketplace.
Because organizations do not have unlimited resources, it is critical to focus your efforts on the innovations that have the greatest chance of commercial success. When you are sensitive to the impact of confirmation bias, you will be better at deciding which ideas to pursue…and which ones to kill.
Stephen Shapiro is the author of Personality Poker: The Playing Card Tool for Driving High Performance Teamwork and Innovation (Penguin Portfolio). You can read over 500 articles at SteveShapiro.com, play the free Personality Poker video game, or follow him on Twitter.
Image credit: Sebastien Wiertz
Check your balance, review recent transactions and pay your bill on the go.
Stephen Shapiro 11 months ago
Hi everyone, I apologize for the delay in responding. I just saw the comments.John, I love the concept of the passion trap! It is less important that YOU are passionate about your products. If your CUSTOMERS are not passionate about them, you will be out of business.Boris, prototyping is a great way to quickly test a market. I am a big believer in the concept of experimentation. When the build it, try it, fix it approach to innovation is used, the market tells you quickly what is viable and what is not.Julie, you are so right. Listening is so critical. Truly hearing is even more important. Unfortunately, our filters prevent us from really understanding what the market needs. Our biases drive us.Jim, great points. And I will say that most market research (but not necessarily yours) is terrible. Most market research studies conscious beliefs of consumers. This rarely is an indicator of buying behaviors. The best market research either taps into the subconscious mind or is based on ethnographic studies. But as you point out, no amount of research is infallible. Hence the market experimentation approach I suggested above.Thanks everyone!!