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Trends are Waves that can Sweep us Away

Scott Belsky Founder & CEO, Behance Recent Posts

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April 3, 2009

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Business Forecasting 2012

Our special feature on forecasting sheds light on how to choose the right model, offers advice from Jack Stack and more.

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Imagine a huge wave crashing into a coastal cliff with great power. The wave makes a thunderous, crushing sound as it engulfs the rocks along the cliff’s edge. Its prominence is overwhelming and appears a reckoning force; it consumes the senses of bystanders and becomes their sole focal point.

However, beyond the power of the wave, it is what lies beneath that is more interesting. The ocean’s massive currents governed by the moon’s gravity, the ocean’s wildlife, which is more complex and unknown than anything else on earth. We tend to focus on the wave at the expense of everything else. Such is the problem with trends.

The big new trend in any industry has the tendency to be deafening. As every news outlet and online personality covers the trend itself – the wave – our judgment becomes overwhelmed. As we extrapolate conclusions from what consumes the surface, we overlook the more dynamic and lasting opportunities before us.

***This article is adapted from the research and writing of Scott Belsky and the Behance team. Behance runs the Behance Creative Network, the Action Method project management application, the Creative Jobs List, and develops knowledge, products, and services that help creative professionals make ideas happen.