September 30, 2010

Last year I wrote a piece where I predicted trends for 2010 – you can read them here – and I must say that I was pretty much spot on with most. The thing about predictions and small business – and I think I’ve developed a bit of knack for this odd duck – is that no matter what trends are reported in the media, small business will always adopt it much slower and in ways that are counter to much of the hype.

Small business owners don’t care what’s cool. They care about what seems practical and what seems obvious – and that’s not always what gets the buzz.

Here are my predictions along those lines for 2011. Some of these might seem pretty obvious, but again, not in the way small business will adopt them.

Social simply is

This year we will simply stop talking about social media as though it were some new, sexy, foreign cousin of marketing. It’s just a fact of marketing life and will get integrated into strategy and tactics alike in ways that produce ROI. (I hope all the social media consultants heed this.)

It will become standard operating procedure to include social media activity into a prospect of client’s CRM record and use social networks as the primary way to acquire introductions and make warm sales calls.

Mobile finally lands

Seems like we’ve been talking about mobile marketing for as long as I can remember. So, why hasn’t it become a part of the small business mix yet? I think it finally will this year, but not in the way it was always portrayed.

Mobile’s promise always seemed to be tied to mobile ads, text messaging and proximity pushes, but consumers don’t want these in their life any more than they want spam, so mobile’s promise has evolved. 

Mobile for the small business will be about mobile payments, search related apps, and location based offers and not about SMS.

Small business doesn’t care about Foursquare or Gowalla, but they do care about the behavior these services are instilling.

O2O becomes strategy

Last year I talked about fusion of online and offline and, as social simply becomes a part of the fabric, so has the logical integration of instant media with traditional media, social networks with chamber mixers. Online and offline, traditional media and new media, will stop competing and start working together.

For 2011 a new kind of strategy will emerge for the small business and that is one of using the online space to drive people to the offline space. The in person experience is the ultimate competitive advantage of the small business and how they beat the online and big box competition.

Get them in the store, get them to a meeting, get them to an event, get them in a community, get them on using an app.

Online 2 offline will be a strategic marketing approach employed by the most successful local businesses where conversion will be measured in hugs and handshakes. 

Networked referral automation

Once again, returning to last year’s prediction, I suggested that search would become social and it has. Search engines now tell you who in your social network likes those shoes or wrote about that topic you just queried.

The evolution of this behavior will be the total automation of social surfing. Surfers will be able to view who in their network knows also knows the real estate agent they are considering hiring and who on Facebook also went to high school with the attorney that was referred to them.

Using an individual’s social graph match with that of your own will become standard business behavior.

Apps over Web

The good news is that you can find anything on the Web these days. The bad news is you can find anything on the Web these days.

Information seekers will grow tired of the unpoliced nature of the Web and will increasingly turn to trusted sources of content and willing pay to have that content contained, packaged and delivered in application form to the device of their choice.

Marketers need to consider this behavior when they develop their content strategies and take a look at the community of content approach vs. the free information approach.

Trusted networks will become even more important.

John Jantsch is a marketing coach, award winning social media publisher and author of two best selling books, Duct Tape Marketing and The Referral Engine.

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Join the conversation ( 31 )

• Lidia Varesco Racoma 1 year 3 months and 25 days ago

  

  As always, great tips! As an advocate for "handwritten media" I fully agree with the concept of O2O. Not only do handwritten communications strengthen relationships that are created online -- but they can help your business stand out. Many of the business connections I've made online have evolved and grown as a result of sending (or receiving) the occasional handwritten card or note. It just makes it more personal. And who doesn't like getting a card in the mail?

• Ken Morrison 1 year 4 months and 19 days ago

  

  I love the metaphor of "new, sexy, foreign cousin of marketing" assuming we are talking about our friend's cousin. :) I am curious how ROI fits into all of this. ROI is so important but as lines become blurred, I am sure some companies will miss the boat while waiting for bold black and white justification of asking for walking up to the sexy foreign social marketing gal.Ken

• Corey Kossack 1 year 7 months and 13 days ago

  

  Fantastic article, John. I particularly like the predictions about mobile and Online to offline commerce. We are seeing huge progress in these areas already, but I think mobile in particular will be huge next year. Smart phones and the apps made for them are advancing rapidly, and I believe mobile apps collectively have the potential to influence consumer purchases as much as social media has.

• Jon Bailey 1 year 7 months and 21 days ago

  

  These are ALL great predictions but I am especially fond of the first one. Social Media Marketing IS marketing. Companies really do need to stop trying to segment it out so much and work more to integrate. The best so-called Social Media Consultants have been and continue to do this very well.

• Kim Garretson Ovative/Group: "Realizing Innovation" 1 year 7 months and 22 days ago

  

  John, here is a trend for SMBs I hope we begin to see in 2011: How a small business person can better deal with the multiple sellers of small business advertising & related business and marketing services that interrupt their days. I heard from a reliable source that many small business owners get at least 17 phone calls a month from sellers of yellow pages, newspaper & radio ads, online media, search services, etc. With all these interruptions it's little wonder many SMBs may be confused about 1) what to spend their money on, 2) how to track the results from the several or many services they do buy, 3) how to either stop or lessen the bother of so many sellers. I am wondering if instead of solo consultants knocking on their door and promising to handle all of this whether we might start to see a new model of small business agencies almost like drop-in centers where the small business owner can quickly assess & contract with the best mix of his or her marketing budget, and also get an online dashboard to watch the results of everything they buy.Thanks for the post.

• Randy Vaughn 1 year 7 months and 23 days ago

  

  As a Foursquare user, I'm intrigued by my own behavior. How easily I'm swayed to buy at American Eagle in a mall only because upon check-in they give me 20% off any purchase. "Here honey, go buy this shirt, you'll get 20% off." I'm talking like a mad-man!Is the real tangible benefit of Foursquare (or others) in the "Special Nearby" or special bonus for every checkin? As a marketer, I would think that any app that encourages/rewards repeat business would catch any business owner's attention - but the trick is getting folks who are still trying to get their mind around Twitter and FB as business tools to recognize 4sq. My father-in-law owns an automotive repair shop - myself and one other customer keep swapping out mayorships. For me, it's a fun badge to earn; the other customer checks-in because he's a 4sw finatic, but a mechanic is not a place he really wants to be a mayor of - that means it's costing him alot of $$$ to be that. Doubt there's alot of buzz about being the mayor of the local psychiatrist or root canal surgeon either.

• Chris Hamilton 1 year 7 months and 24 days ago

  

  This is a great article, so true on all fronts. Especially the online and offline world. There are so many people that think they only have to do one and not the other.On the mobile marketing front, I agree, there is a lot of opportunity here. I recently read a stat from eMarketer that showed that only 0.5% of businesses with revenues under $10M/year are using mobile marketing. So hopefully this segment can learn from your wisdom, it's not about the SMS message, and find a way to grab the 99.5% of the market that no one has taped into.Chris

• DONNA JOHNSON 1 year 7 months and 24 days ago

  

  Thanks for this post! It's fantastic and all of the points are great, and I especially identify with the last one about trusted networks. I have been leading the Indie Beauty Network, a private small business network, since January 2000, and so I have seen coming for a decade. I'm excited to see other people understanding the importance of serving a specific niche -- providing exclusive and customized attention. I think it's what's missing from so many business models today! Thanks for sharing this!

• Gabriele Maidecchi 1 year 7 months and 24 days ago

  

  I feel too these trends are more than realistic, especially because at least two of them (mobile and web apps) are already the present.Sadly I believe these trends will be limited to few pioneer countries: I live in Italy and I think mobile form of payment are a long, long way from here.

• TRUDY PHILLIPS 1 year 7 months and 24 days ago

  

  You have voiced several items that I have begun to sense, the first being the social media simply is and that it will be and is becoming a part of the overall fabric of marketing a business. I have personally found my social media exposure on FB and LI to be adding to my networking face to face. Comments posted in many cases become starting points for the F2F conversation and is more relaxing and interesting. One thing I did not see mentioned is the mobil aspect of having a product picture in the camera of the cellphone that can be quickly shown during a brief encounter, when appropriate. Thanks for the excellent commentary.

• James Cooper 1 year 7 months and 25 days ago

  

  Now, here is an interesting point re: marketing in new trends... how can small business owners be expected to keep up and get results? Are they best to continually up skill themselves? Do they hire a consultant (most SMBs don't have the budget to have someone 'do it for them' on a scale that will drive strong results)? Do they hire a smart f/time marketing person inhouse (but very few SMBs currently have a f/t marketing person & there is no indication SMBs on mass have the $ to make this decision)? John, your points, I believe will happen. What is massively interesting to me will be how and what will SMBs do in the face of not only these trends but future change. I suspect successful SMB owners of the future will be those that understand how to make technology work for them. Digital navies will have the edge & those unable or unwilling to change will be left scratching their heads.Jameshttp://mimosaplanet.com

• John Jantsch 1 year 7 months and 25 days ago

  

  @Suzanne - Let's hope we never see a day where all business is conducted via a web transaction!

• John Jantsch 1 year 7 months and 25 days ago

  

  @Julie - thanks, as someone that reads a ton of web content I know that your "reading the entire article in detail" is high praise for how something resonates.I agree on the lean theme, I think recessions always tend to remind us we actually can get by with less. I'm planning an article on coworking, shared and temporary office and will include your resource.

• Suzanne Novak 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  Fantastic article John, in particular I loved your comment "conversion will be measured in hugs and handshakes." Only in small business is this possible these days and it really provides them with a strong competitive edge, especially for community based businesses. For so long small business have tried to look big in an effort to compete with the big guys, but without much result. It's now a competitive advantage to be small, boutique, friendly and customer committed.

• Julie K. Clark 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  This is one of the best articles I have seen in a while. I actually read the entire thing in detail. Thank you! I particularly liked, to quote you, "Small business owners don’t care what’s cool. They care about what seems practical and what seems obvious – and that’s not always what gets the buzz."I think a 6th trend to shape how small business will operate in 2011 could be their desire to "go lean" in more creative ways. One trend that is booming in small business across the country is the growing trend of businesses sharing office space. Ideally this is with a complementary business and therefore they also have the potential to share business referrals. You can find hundreds of shared office space options across the U.S. online at https://www.SharedBusinessSpace.com.

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @Alison and @John - absolutely - particularly when we expand our view of being online far beyond a web site. Using Twitter (online) to hold a scavenger hunt that ends in the store (offline) is really the kind of strategic expansion of true O2O

• John Epperson 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  Ah, now I think I see what you're saying about O2O - the transaction becomes a personal experience starting with the initial online contact. I.e. the customer is no longer an anonymous "unique" at the online property. Essentially, you're extending as much of the "inside the store" experience to the consumer as possible - including the personal touch which used to only be possible by having gathered preferences/information by speaking to them in person.

• Alison Hull 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  John,I think using the online space to drive people to the offline space is an excellent strategy for small businesses, and it will only become increasingly effective over time. People do not fully trust the internet, so they will seek out "real" contact through other various methods, including the ones you mentioned (the store, a meeting, an event, etc). Great article!

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @John - I don't disagree that SMS is a great tool for business, but in many ways consumers have said they don't really want it, so that's my context.Again, remember I'm talking about business, but that's not been the strategic objective in my view. So, many see it as an information source that may lead to a sale, but I'm talking about using it to create an experience that ends with engagement in person at the outset.

• John Epperson 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  John – thought provoking and interesting post.I have to disagree about your comment that mobile for small business is not about SMS. Maybe I got the context wrong, but SMS is by far the best marketing tool available for B2C small businesses. It is low cost, is permission based, has ridiculously high open rates (90% +) and is welcomed by customers. And ROI can be achieved in within days of implementation.And on the O2O prediction - since the invention of "online" hasn't the purpose been to drive customers from online to offline locations? For certain, that process has been refined over the years, but it's always been the goal.

• Carmen Tellez 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  Gee thanks! Now I really MUST overhaul the menu options my website. I mostly use FaceBook to communicate as far as Social Media is concerned. Next on my plate is to add the cool gadgets like "retweet", "share" and so on to my website and add some daily blurb that makes visitors curious, excited, trusted (thanks Duct Tape), and ready hire our services.And to think, back, way back in the days, all one had to do was open doors and put a "Open" sign up. I may be in the family entertainment business, but for sure client seeking and client maintaining keeps me jumping hoops on a regular basis. That's okay cause I don't "some other clown" swiping the gigs that were meant for me over lazy marketing.

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @Kelly - I think trust is and always will be at the heart of buying decisions - it's just gotten too easy to say "trust me" online.

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @Dan - I agree totally - marketing should advertise time saving and ease of use over all other features and simply every service delivery to the point where using a tool or service or not using it is crystal clear.

• Lawrene Bottorf 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  I completely agree John...We have just started text message marketing...and WOW!!! We have the most recognizable short code in the world.. (90210), and the power of 90% of the people opening their texts within an hour is amazing. Imagine a restaurant that is slow around lunch time...they could send a text to their clients, and say "buy one/get one free", or Free pizza with drink purchase...and watch the restaurant fill up at lunch time.Text ziggzagg to 90210

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @Marie - I do agree, well of course I do, with the assessment that O2O is a great way to make it make sense in simple terms. It kind of brings all the tactics into one strategic tent.

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  @Marie - I do agree, well of course I do, with the assessment that O2O is a great way to make it make sense in simple terms. It kind of brings all the tactics into one strategic tent.

• Kelly Marsh 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  Hey John, Can you predict some stock for me too? Just kidding... I think your prediction about people paying for well packaged information is also spot on. It seems that internet product launches keep getting bigger and bigger with each launch and most of it is all driven by affiliates and e-mail. When I think about it as a consumer, I would much rather buy a extremely well packaged and produced product that I can review from my computer multiple times than attending a live class that I would have to pay for travel, and hotel on top of the cost of the class.http://kellymarsh.org

• Dan Kraus 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  John, you've got a unique vantage point on the trends and agree with them. The one thing I would add to all of them - aimed towards vendors, consultants and anyone else that is working with small business - is that trend adoption by the small business is driven by simplicity and ease of use. The small business owners don't have time to learn new for the sake of new - it needs to fit in with their current approach as an add-on, and any technology enablers or strategy need consider what little time small business have available to take advantage it. Its what I hear all the time - this stuff is great, but where do I find the time to do it.

• Marie Wiese 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  This is so well stated. For the last 18 months I have been working with small business owners to help them undertsand the importance of an online strategy for their business. Your O2O prediction is a perfect way to state the strategy and the execution to a small business owner. The objective of all marketing professionals should be to take the trends and prove the ROI. I have seen companies struggle with all 5 of the predictions. Looking forward to seeing them pay off in 2011.

• John Jantsch 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  Amen Mike - translation is the new master skill in today's environment - right up there with aggregation and filtering.

• Mike Burtner 1 year 8 months and 2 days ago

  

  I agree wholeheartedly that contact-seekers and others seeking information from the social web will move (and pay) for that information from trusted sources. The 'tragedy of the commons' rule applies here; what is made available wholesale at little-to-no cost also loses value. Great article, John; you are right that SMBs don't 'care' but will still be impacted by mobile and social technologies. Those of us who do care would do well to translate features to benefits.